Rising geopolitical tensions between Iran and the United States are beginning to reverberate through global commodity markets, with fertilizer prices emerging as a major pressure point for agriculture in Africa and Ghana. Disruptions to critical energy and shipping routes in the Middle East are tightening supply chains for essential farm inputs, raising concerns about production costs and food security in 2026.
At the heart of the disruption is the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic maritime corridor through which a large share of the world’s oil, gas, and fertilizer exports pass. Industry data shows that nearly half of global urea exports and roughly 30 percent of ammonia supplies originate from the Persian Gulf region. Any instability along this route has an immediate impact on global fertilizer availability and pricing.
Since tensions escalated, global fertilizer prices have surged sharply, with estimates indicating increases of 9 to 31 percent compared to 2025 levels. The price hike is driven not only by constrained supply but also by higher energy costs, as natural gas remains a critical input in nitrogen-based fertilizer production.
For African economies, the effects are particularly pronounced due to heavy reliance on imports. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization, Sub-Saharan Africa imports more than 80 percent of its fertilizer, leaving the region highly exposed to global price shocks. Ghana, which depends on imported urea and other nitrogen-based fertilizers, is directly vulnerable to these disruptions.
In Ghana, fertilizer plays a central role in agricultural productivity, especially for staple crops such as maize, rice, and vegetables. Government programmes have historically relied on subsidized fertilizer to boost yields and support smallholder farmers. Rising global prices, however, threaten to increase the fiscal burden of these subsidies or push costs onto farmers, potentially limiting access.
Agricultural analysts warn that higher fertilizer costs could lead to reduced application rates, lower crop yields, and increased food insecurity. This could further exacerbate inflation in the food market. Ghana has already experienced episodes of food price volatility in recent years, driven by climate shocks, currency fluctuations, and global supply chain disruptions.
The Russia-Ukraine war offers a recent parallel, having disrupted global grain and fertilizer markets and pushed prices to record highs. Current Iran–US tensions risk creating a similar dynamic, especially in fertilizer markets closely tied to energy flows.
Beyond pricing, physical supply constraints are also a concern. Temporary shutdowns of production facilities in the Gulf region due to energy disruptions have further limited availability. For countries like Ghana, which lack domestic fertilizer production, this raises the risk of delayed shipments and shortages during critical planting seasons.
The implications for food security in Ghana in 2026 are significant. Rising input costs could discourage planting or reduce investment in farms, leading to lower output, higher food prices, weaker household purchasing power, and increased reliance on imports at a time when global food prices remain elevated.
Experts say the situation highlights the urgency for structural reforms in Ghana’s agricultural sector. This includes diversifying fertilizer sources, investing in local blending and production, and promoting sustainable farming practices that reduce dependence on imported inputs.
Alternative approaches such as organic fertilization, crop rotation, and soil management techniques that enhance natural nitrogen fixation are also gaining attention. While these solutions require time, technical support, and investment to scale, they offer a path toward reducing exposure to volatile global input markets.
Ultimately, the Iran–US conflict underscores how geopolitical risks quickly translate into economic realities for developing countries. For Ghana, the challenge in 2026 will be balancing short-term measures to support farmers with long-term strategies to build a more resilient, self-sufficient agricultural system.