Fitch Solutions is projecting strong economic growth for Ghana in 2026, forecasting that the country will outperform several emerging-market peers on the back of solid macroeconomic gains made in 2025. The outlook was shared by Mike Kruiniger, Assistant Director at Fitch Solutions, during the PwC post-budget forum held on Wednesday, November 19, 2025, in Accra.
Kruiniger described Ghana’s growth trajectory as “particularly impressive,” noting that the 2026 budget supports a continuation of the positive trends seen this year.
“We see the 2026 budget as broadly supportive of growth, and this aligns with our forecast that Ghana’s real GDP growth will rise from an already strong 5.8% in 2025 to 5.9% in 2026,” he said. He added that private consumption and a rebound in fixed investment—recovering from the sharp contraction in 2023—will drive next year’s performance.
Fitch Solutions expects medium-term growth to remain healthy at around 5%, supported by strong domestic demand. According to Kruiniger, Ghana’s growth outlook is not only solid by its own historical standards but also stands out globally. The country is set to outpace several major emerging markets in 2026, including mainland China, Indonesia and Kenya.
But the research firm also warned of emerging risks. Kruiniger cautioned that the escalating Islamist insurgency across the Sahel could pose a threat to Ghana’s otherwise optimistic economic outlook. He explained that although Ghana has so far been shielded from violent spillovers—thanks in part to its northern terrain and stronger state presence—instability in the region is worsening, especially in Mali.
“Our base case is that Ghana will remain largely insulated from major attacks,” he said. “But if militants were to cross into northern Ghana, the government would likely need to ramp up military spending, which is currently among the lowest in sub-Saharan Africa.”
The security warning comes at a time when Ghana is working to consolidate its post-debt restructuring recovery, stabilise inflation, and strengthen investor confidence going into the 2026 fiscal year.