Four-time winners Italy are one of the most successful nations in World Cup history – but are in danger of missing the finals for the third successive time.
After failing to qualify for Russia 2018 and Qatar 2022, Italy’s 4-1 defeat by Norway on Sunday confirmed they have missed out on automatic qualification to the 2026 tournament, finishing six points behind their opponents.
By finishing second, Italy drop into the play-offs, which have been a source of recent heartbreak and embarrassment.
They lost 1-0 on aggregate to Sweden to miss out on the 2018 World Cup, then four years later suffered one of their most humiliating defeats, beaten 1-0 at home by North Macedonia to end their hopes of qualifying for the 2022 tournament.
Italian football journalist James Horncastle, speaking on the Euro Leagues podcast, said: “Even with an expanded World Cup, that is going to be bigger than ever, for Italy to miss out… It was called apocalyptic the first time they missed out in 2017, I don’t know what stage of the apocalypse we are in now.”
For the first time, the 2026 World Cup, which will be staged in Canada, Mexico and the United States next June and July, will feature 48 nations.
Italy coach Gennaro Gattuso has called for FIFA to change the qualification process, saying: “In my day, the best [group] runners-up went straight to the World Cup; now the rules have changed.
“To change the rules, you need to tell those who organise these tournaments.
“Italy’s record of six wins [in qualification]? You’d have to ask the people who make the groups and the rules.
“In 1990 and 1994, there were two African [three qualified in 1994] teams; now there are nine. It’s not a controversy, but there are difficulties, and we know it well.
“If we look at South America, where six out of 10 teams go directly to the World Cup and the seventh heads into a play-off with a team from Oceania, that does give you regrets and a certain sadness.
“That is the disappointment. The system needs to change in Europe.”
Nightmare start put Italy under pressure
Italy won the European Championship in 2021, but have not played at a World Cup finals since 2014, when they beat England but lost to Costa Rica and Uruguay and failed to make it beyond the group phase.
Their 2026 World Cup qualifying campaign could not have got off to a worse start.
A tame 3-0 loss in their opener against Norway, with Manchester City’s Erling Haaland scoring one of the goals, led to manager Luciano Spalletti publicly announcing his own sacking two days later, though he still took charge of the following 2-0 home win over Moldova.
From then on, Italy have been playing catch-up, with flawless Norway winning their opening seven qualifiers, scoring 33 goals in the process, including 14 for Haaland.
Italy turned to Gattuso, a former combative midfielder who helped AC Milan twice win the Champions League and Italy secure their last World Cup trophy in 2006.
Despite managing AC Milan and then winning the Coppa Italia with Napoli, a 23-day spell at Fiorentina saw him leave without taking charge of a game, before he only lasted seven months at Valencia and five months at Marseille.
His most recent appointment had been with Croatian club Hajduk Split, and many felt him becoming Italy manager was a mistake.
“When I heard Gattuso was in line it just seemed to demonstrate the giant collapse of Italy,” Italian football journalist Mina Rzouki told the Euro Leagues podcast.
“There were so many clips going around on social media about that Italy team just before they won the World Cup and you are talking about Paolo Maldini, [Fabio] Cannavaro, [Alessandro] Nesta, [Francesco] Totti, [Alessandro] Del Piero and it was just an embarrassment of riches.
“Now when you look at Italy over the last few seasons, even though they won the Euros, there was just a fall – but the one thing you could rely on was that Italy created these great coaches. Yet none of these great coaches were called up or have succeeded. Spalletti did not succeed.”
Horncastle added: “The players have had their backs against the wall after losing to Norway in June and now the approach that is being imposed on Italy by the Italian media is ‘you have to win all your remaining games and have to score lots and lots of goals’.
“Italy had a great coach in Luciano Spalletti, although, for whatever reason, it didn’t work out. Gattuso is a more famous manager for his press conferences than the football he has put on the pitch.”
Plenty of goals but improvement needed
However, under-pressure Italy have entertained under Gattuso, with his side scoring 18 goals in his first five matches in charge. A 5-0 win over Estonia was followed by a chaotic 5-4 success against Israel, then 3-1 and 3-0 victories over Estonia and Israel, respectively.
Gattuso’s side struggled to get the breakthrough against Moldova on Thursday before two late goals gave Italy a 2-0 win to keep alive their slim hopes of qualifying automatically.
“So far, so good,” added Rzouki. “Spalletti was considered a great tactician, but you always had question marks over his ability to really spur on his side.
“Gattuso has come in and screamed at them and told them how much they need to fight for this jersey and they all have the passion inside them. The players are playing for him and admire what he has achieved with the Italian national team.”
If Italy finish second in their group, they will then have to face two single-leg play-offs to secure their place at the World Cup, which they won in 1934, 1938, 1982 and 2006.
Despite five wins in five matches, Rzouki feels there needs to be further improvement if they are to qualify and then make an impact in North America.
“You can see they are hungry for goals at all times, but the team has no balance,” added Rzouki.
“If you look at the way they played against Israel, they were playing Estonia and Israel, but you thought they were playing France and Spain. You should be beating Estonia very easily, so you should not be so scared. With Israel, it’s a harder team, but you still should win this match without it being a kerfuffle.
“Israel had loads of chances, had counter-attacks and rotated their players so well, and that threw Italy. The big difference is with two strikers and having strikers who are scoring goals. Scoring goals for Italy was so hard, but under Gattuso, it looks so easy.
“That balance worries me – they are reckless and look tactically naive at times. Maybe they will be a bit like Barcelona when they outscore opponents, but without the beauty.”