The Middle East edges closer to a broader war as Israeli airstrikes hit Tehran and Gulf states fend off waves of Iranian drone attacks, marking exactly two weeks since the United States and Israel entered direct conflict with Iran. The closure of the strategic Strait of Hormuz has triggered a global energy crisis, prompting the United States to temporarily ease sanctions on Russian oil to prevent soaring prices.
Strategic Strikes and Regional Fallout
On Friday, Israeli jets struck more than 200 targets across western and central Iran, focusing on ballistic missile launchers and defence systems. Tehran residents reported powerful explosions that shook residential buildings. Israeli Ambassador to the US Yechiel Leiter confirmed that Basij paramilitary checkpoints were targeted, saying: “Today we hit Basij forces and roadblocks in Tehran, who were restricting the movement of locals.”
The violence has spilled into neighbouring Gulf states. In Oman, two foreigners died when a drone crashed in Sohar’s industrial district. Dubai authorities reported a “successful interception” of a projectile over the city’s financial hub, producing thick plumes of smoke. Saudi Arabia intercepted dozens of drones, including one targeting Riyadh’s diplomatic quarter. Meanwhile, northern Israel’s town of Zarzir saw a missile strike destroy a residential complex, injuring a 34-year-old woman and a teenager.
Iran’s New Leadership and the Hormuz Threat
In his first public statement since taking power on March 8, Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei vowed to maintain the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, calling it a “vulnerable point for the enemy.” Khamenei, who succeeded his father after his death on the first day of the conflict, reportedly sustained minor injuries in the initial strikes. Through a state media message, he warned neighbouring countries to close US bases “as soon as possible” and pledged to “avenge the blood” of Iranians, citing a strike on Minab school as a “deliberate crime.”
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has described the disruption as the “largest supply shock in history,” with Tehran suggesting oil prices could hit $200 per barrel. US President Donald Trump downplayed risks to the waterway, telling Fox News tanker crews should “show some guts” and pass through the Strait, asserting, “we sunk all their ships.” Despite this, shipping companies continue requesting military escorts, which the Pentagon has deemed too dangerous. Internal reports indicate US officials underestimated Iran’s willingness to close the Strait in retaliation.
Military Losses and Regional Attacks
Coalition forces have suffered setbacks in Iraq. A US Air Force KC-135 Stratotanker carrying five crew members crashed in western Iraq on Thursday. While one aircraft was lost, a second returned safely. The incident was not attributed to hostile or friendly fire, and rescue operations are ongoing under “Operation Epic Fury.”
In Iraqi Kurdistan, a drone strike on a French-Kurdish base in Erbil killed a French soldier. President Emmanuel Macron condemned the attack as “unacceptable,” stating the Iran war cannot justify targeting allied forces. Though no group claimed responsibility, Iran-backed militia Ashab al-Kahf warned French interests in the region would be targeted.
Global Economic Impact
The Strait of Hormuz blockade, which handles 20% of global oil, has pushed Brent crude above $100 per barrel. In response, the US temporarily allowed countries to buy stranded Russian oil. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called the measure a “short-term, narrowly tailored” solution to ease supply without financially benefiting Moscow.
Asian economies reliant on Middle Eastern oil have tapped strategic reserves. Japan will release 80 million barrels, South Korea capped gasoline prices at a 30-year high of 1,724 KRW per litre, and Australia is releasing 762 million litres to assist rural farmers facing rising energy and fertiliser costs. Stock markets across Asia fell as investor concerns deepened.
Food Security and African Implications
The conflict is disrupting global South economies. Fertiliser prices, particularly urea, have surged 34% in a month, threatening African food security. Prolonged disruption could force changes in crop cycles and increase supermarket prices. Some countries, including Ethiopia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, are accelerating renewable energy investment as a long-term hedge against Middle Eastern volatility.
Information Warfare
Inside Iran, an internet blackout has left citizens reliant on state media, which claims Iran’s control over the Strait boosts global economic leverage. Residents report being forced to “assume the opposite” of official reports. Meanwhile, the US faces criticism for stylised military videos of the conflict, with critics saying they risk glorifying the war while civilian casualties mount.
In Washington, Republican-led Congress members are pushing for transparency, with a Senate chairman planning the first public oversight hearing on the conflict.
Humanitarian and Social Toll
The war is reshaping daily life far beyond the battlefield. Pakistan and Bangladesh have implemented strict energy measures, including school closures. In Europe, protests against US military mobilisation have erupted, such as in Athens.
After two full weeks, the humanitarian toll is mounting. Nearly 2,000 deaths have been reported in Iran and Lebanon, with 3.2 million displaced in Iran alone. Lebanon could see over 1 million displaced in coming days. Among the casualties are two academics in Lebanon and three Red Crescent aid workers wounded in Iran. Tehran has warned it may target regional energy infrastructure if attacks continue, leaving the international community on high alert for wider regional collapse.
