Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, Mussa Dankwah, has described his organisation’s projection for the Akwatia by-election as one of the most rewarding exercises of his career.
According to him, the satisfaction came from successfully navigating the immense pressure and scrutiny surrounding the forecast, especially with critics poised to pounce if his prediction had been wrong.
Ahead of the September 2 by-election, Global InfoAnalytics projected a win for the National Democratic Congress (NDC) candidate, Bernard Baidoo Bediako, forecasting that he would secure 53% of the valid votes.
The Electoral Commission’s certified results confirmed the prediction, with Bediako winning 18,199 votes against the New Patriotic Party’s (NPP) Solomon Kwame Asumadu, who polled 15,235. Owusu Patrick of the Liberal Party of Ghana (LPG) secured 82 votes.
In total, 33,819 valid ballots were cast, with 303 rejected.
Mr. Dankwah said the high stakes made the outcome even more significant for his organisation.
“I knew I would have been taken to the slaughterhouse. They were preparing to take me there to finish me if I got this wrong,” he said.
Changing Electoral Landscape
Mr. Dankwah urged political parties to move away from propaganda and personal attacks, stressing that Ghana’s electoral landscape has undergone a dramatic transformation.
“The word here is poll, fair game, research, and science. Gone are the days when elections are won on propaganda, emotions, insults, or just anything,” he noted.
He explained that political parties must adapt to a changing voter demographic, highlighting that over 70% of Ghana’s voters are now below 35 years old.
“That is something they must appreciate and understand the implications,” he said.
According to him, today’s young voters are more informed, digitally connected, and quick to fact-check political claims.
“These people are well-connected, are on social media, and will be quick to fact-check you. If they fact-check you and realise that you are telling lies, that is your end,” he cautioned.
Mr. Dankwah made these remarks in an interview on Citi FM.