Why Lithium deal may not be viable at current terms

Why Lithium deal may not be viable at current terms

A former Chairman of the Public Interest and Accountability Committee (PIAC) and a prominent extractive governance advocate, Dr. Steve Manteaw, has called for a revision of the fiscal terms of the Atlantic Lithium mining lease.

He believes a global collapse in lithium prices has rendered the crucial Ewoyaa Project financially unviable under its current structure.

Speaking on JoyNews’ The Pulse on Monday, November 17, Dr. Manteaw suggested revising the contract before parliamentary ratification.

The Economic Threat: A Substantial Price Collapse

Dr. Manteaw anchored his demand on the dramatic decline in the global price of lithium, the key component for electric vehicle (EV) batteries, since the agreement was initially negotiated with Barari DV Ghana Limited, a subsidiary of Australia’s Atlantic Lithium.

“But let me also explain that the global lithium prices at the time we negotiated for the lease, this Atlantic lithium lease, are not what they are today. There’s been a substantial price collapse, throwing into question the viability of the project.”

According to industry data, lithium prices have plummeted by as much as 80% from their peak in late 2022.

For instance, the price of Lithium Carbonate—a key benchmark—which was trading around US$70,000 to US$80,000 per metric tonne at the peak of the market, has collapsed to low levels, radically shrinking potential profit margins for the 36.8 million-tonne Ewoyaa resource.

Dr. Manteaw cautioned that without immediate adjustment to Ghana’s revenue expectations, the project would face severe operational risk.

“So if you don’t actually revise the project downwards, that project will economically not be viable. So there is a case for the revision of the fiscal terms.”

Political Posturing vs. National Interest

The advocate acknowledged that the necessary review is entangled in political rivalry, particularly following the contentious nature of the original negotiations in 2023.

“…at the end of the day we need to put Ghana first.”

Dr. Manteaw’s comments come as the agreement, which proposes a 19% state equity stake (13% free carried interest and 6% through the Minerals Income Investment Fund – MIIF) and a 10% royalty rate, awaits final ratification by Parliament. The government has already invested considerable political capital, including a reported $70 million into the project.

The former PIAC Chairman emphasized that a revised deal must focus on safeguarding Ghana’s long-term economic returns and ensuring that the Ewoyaa project, located in the Central Region, ultimately delivers substantial benefits to the communities and the nation.

Delaying the revision, he warned, only exacerbates the risk to Ghana’s maiden venture into the critical minerals sector.

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