The Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Kristalina Georgieva, has welcomed the agreement to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, describing it as a positive step for global stability.
In a new blog post, she said the world economy has so far managed to withstand the impact of the war in the Middle East. However, she cautioned that any escalation of the conflict or disruption to global supply chains could still pose a “clear risk to global growth.”
“More than three months into the war in the Middle East, the global economy appears to be holding up. Commodity prices, inflation and inflation expectations, and financial conditions have all been affected—but not yet in ways that signal a global slowdown,” she wrote.
In April, the IMF presented three possible scenarios for global GDP growth in 2026 and 2027. Its middle “adverse scenario” projected growth slowing to 2.5% in 2026, with headline inflation reaching 5.4%.
Georgieva had previously indicated that an adverse scenario was already unfolding. However, her latest remarks suggest the IMF may now be leaning back toward its baseline outlook, which assumes a short-lived conflict and projects growth of 3.1% in 2026.
The Fund is expected to release an updated global economic forecast on July 8.